Why Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are pulling out of Ecowas

By Moses Muli

Opinion

Published: Feb.,6 2024 3:15 PM(EAT)

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have sent Ecowas, west Africa main political union of 15 countries, a formal notice of their withdrawal from the bloc. The three countries are governed by military rulers who have overthrown democratically elected leaders since 2021.

The three countries have given three main reasons for their withdrawal

The first is what they call the `illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions imposed on them for truncating their democracies.

Second is the failureof the Ecowas to assist them in their “Existential fight against terrorism and insecurity perpetuated by Islamis state of west Africa (ISWAP) in the Sahel a branch of ISIS.”

The Juntas have also argued that Ecowas has deviated from the founding principles of the organisation and it was controlled by foreign powers.

In 2001, Ecowas adopted a protocol on democracy and good governance which included a mechanism for unconstitutional changes of govement Article 1a of the protocal maintains “zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means”

Ecowas cited this clause as its reason for suspending the three countries and imposing sanctions on them.

The bloc has made it clear that it won’t work with the regimes. It’s statement made it clear that it has taken a strong stance because it wishes to detr military coups in their countries within the bloc.

The regional blocis also clearly frustrated at the lack of interest the three countries have shown in returning to democratic rule. It has also asked for aclear and definite transition timetable especially for Mali and Burkina Faso.

The impact of the withdrawal on Ecowas

The main impact will be on trade and economic development. Ecowas is primarily an economic community and the loss of any member will affect trade and economic development.

The three countries collectively account 8% of the US $ 761 billion Ecowas gross domestic product(GDP). In 2022,the total tradevolume from the Ecowas region totalled US $277.2 billion.

The concern is that the exit of the three countries could affect the flow of goods and services in the bloc.

Exiting the bloc could have other knock on effects too:

• The economic collapse of the countries. These countries have strategic importance especially in food security. niger is a key producer of Onions and Burkina faso exports tomatoes tothe sub region.
• this could lead to an exodus of citizens toother countries further threatening the stabilityof the region.
• Concern that the the three countries will enter in bilateral relationships with countries that might not be favourable to other Ecowas countries. For example there are growing concern Niger’s alliance with Russia after severing ties with colonial master France.

What impact will it have on each of the countries?

The main impact on the countries will be on the movement of the people, goods and services. For instance, there are more than 5 million citizens of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger living and working in Cote de’ ivoire alone. Ghana, Togo, Benin host a large numberof Nigeriens. The citizns of all the three landlocked countries would no longer be able to travel to other Ecowas countries without impediments.

The sanction imposed on Niger by Ecowas are already affecting citizens of the country.  depending on how Ecowas agrees to relate to the countries in future, there could be restrictions on the good and services which woulsd furtheraffect the economies of these countries.

What impact will it have on the security in the region

There is already limited security co-operation between the three countries and Ecowas members. They have all withdrawn from the G5 Sahel,resulting in the collpse of the organisation.The three countries have joined to form the Alliance of Sahel states, but without support from regional groups such as Ecowas they will struggle to curtail insurgencies.

Currently mali has over 1000 members of African corps(formerly Wagner Group) supported by Russia. Over 100 in Burkina Faso. Niger has recently agreed militay co-operation with Russia.

This indicates the three countries still require external assistance to combat insecurity. The problem is that Russia is fighting a huge war in Ukraine and might not be able to support the three countries as much as they would require.

Ecowas leaders have that they are willing to have a dialoguewith the three countries. I think Ecowas granting some concessions to prevent them from exiting would be in the best interest of the bloc and all the citizens of the Ecowas countries.